Evan Lucas

Evan Lucas

Macro-Micro: Goldilocks and the no bears

Start of the three week of a new calendar year (On that note Happy New Year to all) and already the word of 2017 and has been released by Macquarie Dictionary – I think I have already spotted what the word of 2018 will be: ‘Goldilocks’. The two major economic think tanks in the IMF and the World Bank finally crunched enough numbers to agree with what the rest of the economic world has been saying for 12 months – …

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Evan Lucas

Macro Micro: No rest for the wicked

Three weeks to Christmas – However those three weeks are a long, long way away when you look at what is due to be released over the next 11 days. Starting from today the next 11 days of the year are probably the busiest 11-day period of 2017 Here is why: Year-end central bank meetings (specifically the Fed), employment releases, terms of trade data, as well as the start of Q4 data (October) from construction, retails sales, fixed asset investment, …

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Evan Lucas

Macro-Micro: The Man in Red

Friday marks the start of the end for 2017 – December is always that interesting month – questions about volumes, value, direction and new year forecasts come thick and fast. The other major question that comes – Are we going to see a man in a red suit add some end of year magic into global markets? Santa Claus or not – a degree of evaluation needs to remain at the front of thought for December. Over the previous five …

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Evan Lucas

Macro Micro: The Oil Conundrum

It has brewing for little while now however it appears we are finally at the inflection point that has formed three times over the past two and half odd years. The supply-demand set up in oil. Below is the smoothed-out chart of WTI – the chart shows the tail end of the 2015 oil crash that saw WTI go from US$130 a barrel to US$44 over a 6-month period. If you want to see the micro carnage this caused have …

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Evan Lucas

Macro-Micro: SoMPing the AUD – anyone for retail therapy?

The Macro stuff: Can’t escape what happened in the AUD over the weekend – despite a weak USD to finish last week’s trading week – AUD lost ground, and from where I am sitting it’s all to do with the Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP). The suggestion from the release is pretty clear – RBA will be unable to reach its longer-term objectives inside the next 26 months and the conclusion – clouded outlook, an AUD that is clearly above …

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