Having recorded strong gains over 2023 & 2024, shares in HUB24 (ASX:HUB) have struggled this year. Key reasons include a rotation out of technology stocks and uncertainty around technology trends. However, recent operational performance has been strong and the fundamentals remain highly attractive.
The recent recovery in HUB has prompted us to consider whether HUB is worth revisiting.
About HUB24
HUB24 is a specialist investment platform provider, offering financial planners and wealth advisers a technology solution to administer and manage client investment portfolios. HUB’s platform caters for superannuation and non-superannuation products. It provides the ability to acquire, hold and administer a wide range of investments; and provides comprehensive reporting to advisers and their clients.
The majority of Funds Under Administration (FUA) are generated from Platform, with the remaining from Portfolio Administration and Reporting Services (PARS). PARS is a non-custodial portfolio service designed for financial advisers and their clients to manage and report on investments that are held outside of the main HUB24 custodial platform.
Within the Australian platform market, HUB holds a 9.7% share, which has grown in recent years as HUB has benefited from a structural shift away from legacy providers toward modern technology-driven platforms.
Key Fundamental Drivers
Key Metrics Highlight Solid Underlying Momentum
For the three months to 31 March 2026 (3Q26), HUB reported Platform net inflows of $3.984b. This was ~3% below consensus estimates and was driven by a one-off institutional client outflow in March.
Excluding the one-off large institutional outflow, it is estimated that Platform net flows would have been ~14-15% higher compared to the prior corresponding period (pcp).
Retail flows delivered strong year-on-year growth and lead indicators remain strong, with solid adviser additions and new distribution agreements boosting medium-term FUA growth. HUB added an all-time quarterly record of 272 net new advisers to 5,549 (up 11% on the pcp).
FUA per adviser is currently ~$27m and compares to the industry average of ~$99m. This indicates that there is further runway for growth within HUB’s existing adviser base.
Market Share to Expand
HUB retained its #1 ranking for quarterly and annual net inflows for a 9th consecutive quarter. Its platform market share rose to 9.7% as at December 2025 (up from 9.3% as at September 2025).
There is scope for HUB to significantly increase its market share to >20% over the medium term, given the trend towards platform consolidation. Notably, 81% of industry net inflows were captured by two platforms over the last year (with 47% flowing to HUB24). Further, advisers are choosing to use fewer platforms, with 36% of advisers indicating they use a single platform as at 1H26 (up from 13% in 2021).
HUB’s consistent #1 ranking is translating into above-peer trends in adviser growth (8% for HUB as at 1H26 compared to +7% for its main competitor Netwealth Group (ASX: NWL)). In addition, HUB’s account growth of +27% compares to NWL’s +14%. HUB is also outpacing NWL in market share gains by 50% (+1.5% vs +1.0% to September 2025).
Scope For Further Operating Leverage
For the six months to 31 December 2025 (1H26), group underlying EBITDA margin increased by 2.9% to 42.7%. This reflects HUB’s scalable operating model and benefits of automation. Cost growth of 19.9% was well below revenue growth of 25.9%. EBITDA margin for the Platform segment is higher than that for the Technology Solutions division due to several reasons. Most notably, the technology infrastructure allows for high automation in transaction reporting and portfolio management. This reduces the need for proportional staffing as the business grows.
While cost growth is likely to remain elevated, management expect to drive incremental margin expansion. However, this will be more moderate than the pace seen during 1H26.
Fundamental View
Despite the impact from a one-off institutional client outflow in March, underlying trends in the Platform segment remain solid. HUB continues to improve and outpace its major competitor NWL on metrics such as FUA per adviser, adviser growth, account growth and market share.
HUB shares are currently trading on a 1-year forward P/E multiple of ~47x, which is slightly below the long-term average in both absolute and relative terms.
A key catalyst for the shares in the near term is HUB’s ability to win a greater share of net inflows as investment markets improve. The scope for a greater-than-expected expansion in operating leverage from improved net fund flows/further cost efficiencies is another catalyst.
Charting View
HUB has been trading in a tightening range since January. It is near the bottom of that range which means that levels in the low $80’s are a buying opportunity for those willing to run a tight stop near $75. This is because if it breaks support, we could see it make a sharp move lower towards $60. For the long-term chart to look positive, we would need to see the stock push beyond $100 again. However, for the moment it is still just trading in a range.
Michael Gable is managing director of Fairmont Equities.
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