The bond market is watched closely by professional traders in the equity markets. Traders often use the bond market as a predictor of what will happen in the share market. One reason is because it can give indications as to where the economy is going.
Predicting the Economy
Short term rates are set by central banks. They evaluate different economic indicators before setting this rate.
Long term interest rates are determined by the market. The bond market will determine whether they think the central bank has acted appropriately given the current economic environment. If the bond market thinks the central banks have set the interest rates too low then there will be expectations of increased inflation. This will cause long term interest rates to increase to reward bond investors for the loss of purchasing power associated with the future cash flow. If bond investors think the central banks have set the interest too high, then long term interest rates will decrease as there will be expectations of decreasing inflation.
A normal yield curve shows low yield for shorter maturity bonds and higher yields for longer maturity bonds. There is greater probability that interest rates will rise with longer term bonds than shorter term bonds and hence yields become higher as maturity is longer. Interest rate rises negatively impact bond prices.
A flat yield curve depicts short and long term yields being similar to each other. In this case, the difference between yields on short and longer term bonds decreases. This “flat yield curve” term can indicate anticipation of slower economic growth.
The flattening of the yield curve may be caused when the central bank raises short term rates. When the central banks see the economy overheating then they may decide to increase rates to slow down the pace. As investors are uncertain about the economic outlook, they demand similar yields from long and short term bonds.
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Lauren Hua is a private client adviser at Fairmont Equities.
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